Explained: What India's Indus Waters Treaty suspension means for Pakistan

In a move that signals a sharp escalation in bilateral tensions between India and Pakistan following the terror attack in Pahalgam on April 22, which killed 26 civilians, the Union government on Wednesday (April 23) announced the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty.

 

The move came as part of a series of retaliatory measures following the Pahalgam attack. In addition to halting the treaty, India also announced it will shut down the integrated check post at Attari and reduce the strength of Pakistan’s High Commission in New Delhi to 30, with reciprocal downsizing of India’s mission in Islamabad. The Centre said the treaty would remain suspended until Pakistan “credibly and irreversibly” ends its support for cross-border terrorism. 

 

 

What happens to Pakistan after the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty?

 

Pakistan is heavily dependent on the Indus River system, with about 80 per cent of its cultivated land — roughly 16 million hectares — relying on water from these rivers. The rivers governed by the treaty (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) supply water for irrigation, urban consumption, and hydropower.

 

Pakistan is already one of the most water-stressed countries globally, with per capita water availability declining. The country’s water storage capacity is low, and any interruption exacerbates existing vulnerabilities. About 93 per cent of Indus water is used for irrigation, supporting crops like wheat, rice, sugarcane, and cotton. Any reduction or stoppage in river flows would threaten food security, lower crop yields, and could trigger widespread shortages.

 

Major urban centres such as Karachi, Lahore, and Multan depend on Indus waters for drinking and municipal use. A cut in supply would lead to water scarcity in cities, potentially causing unrest.

 

Additionally, key hydropower plants like Tarbela and Mangla are fed by these rivers. Disrupted flows could stall power generation, crippling industries and homes.

 

The Indus system supports nearly 25 per cent of Pakistan’s GDP. Disruption could lead to unemployment, rural migration, and increased loan defaults. 

 

What is the Indus Waters Treaty?

 

The Indus Waters Treaty, signed on September 19, 1960, is a water-sharing agreement between India and Pakistan, brokered by the World Bank. It governs the use of the Indus River and its tributaries, which originate in Tibet and flow through India into Pakistan before draining into the Arabian Sea.

 

The river system includes the Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej rivers.

 

The agreement is one of the most detailed water-sharing treaties in the world and is often cited as a rare example of cooperation between two hostile neighbours.  Also read: India halts Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan, shuts down Attari border

 

Why was the Indus Waters Treaty signed in 1960?

 

After the 1947 Partition of British India, the Indus system became a contested resource. The main problem was that key control points for irrigation canals remained in India, while many canals extended into Pakistan. When the short-term Standstill Agreement expired in April 1948, India halted the flow of water into Pakistan, prompting a major crisis. An interim solution was reached through the Inter-Dominion Accord of May 4, 1948, allowing India to restore supplies in return for annual payments.

 

However, this was not a permanent solution. Negotiations dragged on until David Lilienthal, former head of the Tennessee Valley Authority, proposed joint water management. The World Bank took up this idea and mediated talks, leading to the final agreement signed by Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistani President Ayub Khan.

 

What are the key features of the Indus treaty?

 

The treaty divides the rivers between the two countries. India was given control over the three eastern rivers — Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej — while Pakistan was allotted the three western rivers — Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. Although India was allowed limited use of the western rivers for domestic purposes, agriculture, and hydroelectric power generation, it could not alter the natural flow of these rivers into Pakistan.

 

Pakistan, in return, was allowed to build infrastructure like dams and canals on its rivers with financial assistance from the World Bank and other countries. Key infrastructure built under this arrangement includes the Tarbela Dam on the Indus and the Mangla Dam on the Jhelum. A Permanent Indus Commission was set up, with one commissioner from each country.  Watch: White House condemns Pahalgam terror attack

 

How has it been implemented?

 

Despite several wars and recurring political tensions, the treaty has remained in force for over six decades. The Permanent Indus Commission has continued to function even during periods of open conflict, such as the 1965 and 1971 wars. The commission serves as a dispute resolution mechanism and has played a key role in resolving many technical disagreements.

 

For instance, the treaty faced one of its most serious challenges in 2017, when India completed the Kishanganga Dam in Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan objected to the project, citing concerns over water diversion and treaty violations. Despite discussions mediated by the World Bank, no consensus was reached. Similar objections were raised by Pakistan over India’s Ratle hydroelectric project on the Chenab.

 

Why is the treaty often called “generous”?

 

Under the treaty, around 80 per cent of the total water flow from the Indus system — mostly from the three western rivers — was allocated to Pakistan. This makes it an unusually generous agreement for a lower riparian country like India. By comparison, Mexico receives a far smaller share of water under its treaty with the United States. India is entitled to only 20 per cent of the Indus system’s water and is restricted in its use of the western rivers, even though these rivers originate or flow through Indian territory.

  Also read: Restoring normalcy and justice is key for India 

How are disputes handled?

 

Disagreements are managed through the Permanent Indus Commission, with one member from each country. They meet every year and hold extra sessions if needed. If they cannot resolve a dispute, the issue can be taken to neutral experts or even an international arbitration court, as laid out in the treaty. Both nations have also agreed to take preventive steps against flood damage, working through their own dam and embankment systems.

 

Now, it remains to be seen how Pakistan responds to India’s suspension of the treaty and the global pressure that may arise as a result.