H-1B lottery may end: US considers merit-based selection for work visas

The US may replace its H-1B visa lottery with a weighted system favouring high earners, affecting how Indians apply for the coveted work visa

The US government is weighing changes to the way H-1B visas are allocated, with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) signalling a possible shift from the current random lottery system to a “weighted selection process”.

 

In a filing to the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs last Thursday, DHS said the change would apply to the capped part of the system—85,000 visas annually, which includes 65,000 for regular applicants and 20,000 for those with advanced degrees from US institutions. The proposed rule is still under review and details are sparse, but the US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) is listed as the implementing agency.

 

 

Push for merit-based allocation gathers steam

 

The proposal comes amid a broader push to reward high earners and skilled professionals in the H-1B process.

 

“The H-1B is the primary way through which the United States attracts high-skilled immigrants. That it is randomly allocated (among eligible applicants) is insane. America deserves better,” said Connor O’Brien, research analyst at the Economic Innovation Group.

 

He added on social media, “Eliminating the H-1B lottery in favour of a system that prioritises higher earners first is a no-brainer... Giving away these visas randomly is an enormous, missed opportunity to attract truly scarce talent that would benefit American businesses and communities.”

 

A January 2025 proposal by the Institute for Progress (IFP), a nonpartisan think tank, had floated the idea of ranking applicants by salary or seniority to raise the economic output of the programme. “Without changing the number of visas, replacing the lottery could increase the economic value of the program to the United States by 88%, equivalent to the effect on GDP of raising the cap by 75,000,” said Jeremy Neufeld, director of immigration policy at IFP.

 

Flaws in current lottery system flagged

 

Neufeld argued that the current system favours large outsourcing firms offering low-paying IT jobs over smaller firms seeking to sponsor niche or highly skilled talent. “It discourages employers from identifying and recruiting particularly talented candidates, because there is no certainty they can successfully get a visa for a given person,” he said.

 

He estimated that US employers spend over $1.9 billion each year on recruitment efforts for H-1B applicants who ultimately don’t secure a visa.

 

But Neufeld also cautioned against painting the H-1B programme as ineffective. “In spite of all its flaws, the program has helped drive American innovation and productivity growth,” he said, adding that the visas have helped reduce job offshoring to countries like Canada, India and China.

 

Bulk applications under scrutiny

 

In January 2025, the US implemented tighter controls to prevent companies from submitting excessive applications under the lottery system. The move was seen as an attempt to reduce abuse and bring fairness back into the process.

 

“Many firms are hesitant to engage with the unpredictable lottery process. Families are also looking for more stable options, such as the EB-5 programme,” Piyush Gupta, vice president for India and the Middle East at CanAm Enterprises told Business Standard.

 

Indians remain largest beneficiaries—but face long waits

 

Indian nationals continue to dominate the H-1B programme. In the 2023 financial year, around 191,000 visas were granted to Indian professionals. That number rose to about 207,000 in FY 2024.

 

However, the path to permanent residency remains uncertain. Over one million Indians are currently stuck in employment-based green card backlogs, according to USCIS data. The delays are largely due to annual caps and a per-country quota system that slows down progress for applicants from countries with high demand, like India.

 

What we know so far

 

• DHS has proposed a “weighted selection process” for the H-1B visa cap

• It would apply to the 85,000 cap-subject visas issued annually

• USCIS will oversee implementation if the rule is adopted

• No final rule or timeline has been announced

• Changes, if any, are unlikely to affect the next H-1B cycle

 

For now, the random lottery system remains in place. But if a weighted model moves forward, it could alter the rules of the game for Indian professionals, many of whom have long relied on this route to build careers in the US.