BS EDIT: India’s Outlook: Steady at Home, Uncertain Abroad

Trade Talks on Edge

With the July 9 deadline near, an India–US trade deal remains uncertain. US policies have shaken global markets and trade frameworks

External Shocks Loom

RBI’s Financial Stability Report warns that rising geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions may hit India’s growth and equity markets

Capital Flows Under Strain

India ran a modest CAD in FY25, but inflows fell short. A spike in global risk aversion could tighten financing conditions

Domestic Indicators Steady

Inflation is stable, the monsoon outlook is strong, and fiscal consolidation continues—giving policymakers some breathing room

Banking and Corporate Health Improves

NPAs are at a multi-year low, return on assets has risen, and corporate leverage remains well below global norms

Growth Needs Investment, But Caution Rules

Strong domestic fundamentals contrast with global headwinds. Sustained investment may hinge on how the external climate evolves