Trade policy uncertainty in the US continues to cloud global economic prospects, despite a slight reduction in overall downside risks since April
The IMF now expects US growth at 2% and India at 6.6% for the year, but such marginal revisions offer little clarity in a deeply uncertain environment
With the US imposing 50% tariffs on Indian goods, talks are underway. A balanced agreement remains crucial for restoring confidence in bilateral trade
Global firms are deferring investments. A rise in policy uncertainty can reduce investment by 2%, with effects peaking two years after the shock
Changes in US immigration policy could raise inflation and impact output, especially in sectors like farming, construction, and hospitality
Global growth may average 3.2% from 2027–30, below pre-pandemic levels. The resolution of trade tensions will shape the path ahead for goods and services